![\"Qian\"](\"https:\/\/news.utoledo.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Qian.jpg\")
<\/a>Qian<\/p><\/div>\u201cOur goal is to come up with a way to improve the results and reduce the level of uncertainty in their decision-making process to avoid unnecessary panic,\u201d Dr. Song Qian, UT assistant professor of environmental science, said. \u201cFrequent and accurate quantification of cyanobacterial toxins in treatment-finished drinking water is paramount to protecting the public.\u201d<\/p>\n
Qian led the group of six UT graduate students and a researcher from Ohio State University as they collected monitoring data measured during the 2014 bloom season from the city of Toledo\u2019s Water Department and OSU\u2019s Stone Lab in Put-in-Bay.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe formed this special topics class right after the crisis because some questioned the wisdom of issuing the \u2018Do Not Drink\u2019 advisory based on one sample exceeding the standard set by the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency,\u201d Qian said. \u201cWe applied our knowledge to the issue that is not only of educational and intellectual value, but also highly relevant to the local community.\u201d<\/p>\n
After analyzing the two sources of data, the class concluded that the ELISA test can be \u201chighly variable.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cSuch uncertainty is rarely reported and accounted for in important drinking water management decisions,\u201d Qian wrote in the class\u2019 report titled \u201cQuantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Estimated Microsystin Concentrations From the ELISA Method,\u201d which was published Oct. 30. \u201cThe risk of exposure to the harmful levels of the toxins has not been adequately communicated.\u201d<\/p>\n
ELISA stands for the \u201cenzyme-linked immunosorbent assay\u201d method, which Qian said is used for measuring microcystin concentration in almost all Ohio drinking water facilities that utilize Lake Erie as source water. Qian calls it the most convenient and cost-effective test to use.<\/p>\n
The ELISA test kit is the same method the city of Toledo used to measure microcystin in the raw lake water on a daily basis through the 2015 algal bloom season. <\/p>\n
According to the published research, \u201cMuch of the uncertainty is a result of the highly uncertain \u2018standard curve\u2019 developed during each test.\u201d <\/p>\n
A standard curve links a microcystin concentration through a color development process to an optical density \u2014 a quantity that can be measured directly.<\/p>\n
Qian says the problem with the current test kit is that the standard curve is developed from only five or six data points. He says unavoidable measurement errors in optical density make the standard curve variable from test to test.<\/p>\n
In order to increase reliability, Qian and the graduate students propose pooling raw test data from multiple tests using a more sophisticated statistical method. <\/p>\n
\u201cEstimation uncertainty can be effectively reduced through the effort of regional regulatory agencies by sharing and combining raw test data from their regularly scheduled microcystin monitoring program,\u201d according to the published report.<\/p>\n
Qian admits combining data from multiple tests is a complicated mathematical process. That is why he is looking for funding to develop easy-to-use software that would analyze monitoring data and calculate a microcystin concentration estimate based on a more stable standard curve.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur drinking water is safe because of the advanced treatment used in our city,\u201d Qian said. \u201cThe decision made during the 2014 water crisis was a difficult one given the uncertainty associated with the method. By teaching the class, we want to figure out how science can help support leaders when they\u2019re making calls during bloom seasons that could threaten public health. Reducing the uncertainty in the measured microcystin concentration will make the process easier.\u201d<\/p>\n
As a result of this research, Qian believes the city of Toledo made the right call issuing the \u201cDo Not Drink\u201d advisory in 2014 because he said, \u201cOur microcystin estimate for that particular day is higher.\u201d<\/p>\n